Met Office says mercury set to rocket above average as El Nino risk heats up

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    The Met Office expects the UK to be hotter than Morocco by the end of the week as temperatures climb to 25C in parts of the country.

    Wales, the West Midlands and the south-west of England are likely to see the best of the conditions as the mercury rises throughout the week.

    And a forecaster has outlined the chances of a heatwave sweeping the country in June.

    READ MORE: Brits to bask in 42 days of heat as UK blasted by 'temperature anomaly'

    Meteorologist Jim Dale, from British Weather Services, believes temperatures could go as high as 30C next month is the full effect of El Nino is felt.

    El Nino is a weather phenomenon which occurs every few years and sees the warming of sea surface temperature, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific, the Met Office says.

    It adds: "An El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. El Nino is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer than average weather."

    It has been poised to return in 2023 after three years of its cooler opponent, La Nina, and has potential to raise temperatures across the globe in the hotter months.

    According to the World Meteorological Organisation, there is a 60 percent chance of the transition taking place between this month and July. But this increases to 70 percent between June and August, and up to 80 percent up to September.

    If it does strike early, Mr Dale told The Express that El Nino could cause a "knock-on effect", and if it does, June could deliver some baking heat.

    He said: "Low pressure forces the air to come in from the south in which comes the 19C and 20C temperatures, which move up to 25C to 26C.

    “And it looks like it may well happen, we may start to see something more continental – that's all we are looking for.

    "We need to see if El Nino kicks in, although we are not the main recipients. But we can fully expect some hazardous weather if El Nino gets going, we may see the knock-on effect."

    He added: "The next staging post is 25C and I think we will get to that in the next 10 days – the next one after that is 30C and we could see that in the first part of June."

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    However, Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said in April that records may be broken in 2024, if El Nino occurs in December.

    “The current record for global temperature occurred in 2016 and it’s no coincidence that followed the last big El Nino. If we get a big El Nino at the end of this year then, we’re likely to break the record for global temperature in 2024," he said.

    Along with raising temperatures, it can also drag temperatures down for northern Europe in winter, which could also see Britain freeze in the colder months.

    Its long range outlook says: "By early June, high pressure is still expected to dominate, though with the possibility of showers developing in the south and possibly turning heavy at times. The north likely to see drier weather.

    "Temperatures are expected be above normal for most, although cooler near windward coasts."


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