France election polls: Why Marine Le Pen is wasting votes – Emmanuel Macron huge boost

France elections: Expert says ‘anything is possible in 2022’

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Emmanuel Macron became the youngest president in French history when he took office in May 2017. Early polls for the upcoming presidential election indicates conservative pundit Eric Zemmour is rising in popularity, while head of the far-right National Rally party Marine Le Pen is taking a hit. The far-right polemist is posing a real threat and the National Rally party fears he could split the far-right enough, jeopardising Ms Le Pen’s chances in making it through to the second round of voting at all.

Prominent far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour was removed from his regular rightwing talkshow, under rules requiring fair allocation of airtime to politicians.

The commentator is expected to try to fight Mr Macron in the 2022 race but is actually proving as a fierce opponent for his fellow far-right competitor Marine Le Pen.

Mr Zemmour has yet to formally announce his candidacy, but a recent poll pitching his support at 10 percent – just nine percentage points off Ms Le Pen – has become a cause for concern.

The National Rally party fears Mr Zemmour will split the far-right vote, denying Ms Le Pen a place in the second round of the election.

In the poll published on September 14 in Challenges magazine, the controversial Mr Zemmour won 10 percent of the vote with respondents saying they would back him in the upcoming election.

This compared with just 19 percent for the far-right candidate Ms Le Pen.

Mr Zemmour tested at five percent at the beginning of July, rising to seven percent in September.

Emmanuel Macron came out on top with 23 percent and third place was awarded to Xavier Bertrand with 14 percent.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon was in fourth place, just ahead of Mr Zemmour with 11 percent of the vote share.

After the first round of voting, just two candidates progress to the second and final rounds of voting.

However, if one person wins more than half of the votes in the first round, they automatically become the next president.

Until now, the populist National Rally candidate had been polling above 20 percent – often neck and neck with Mr Macron.

But the poll demonstrated a fall from grace for Ms Le Pen.

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The poll also shows Mr Zemmour has overtaken several left opponents including Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo and the Green candidate Yannick Jado.

The remaining results were as follows:

  • Anne Hidalgo: Seven percent
  • Yannick Jadot: Seven percent
  • Fabien Roussel: Three percent
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: Two percent
  • Natalie Arthaud: One percent
  • Philippe Poutou: One percent
  • Jean-Christophe Lagarde: One percent
  • Jean Lassalle: One percent
  • Florian Philippot: Less than 0.5 percent
  • François Asselineau: Less than 0.5 percent.

Speaking of the poll, Challenges magazine wrote: “It’s a poll that feels like an explosion.

“The TV celebrity appears to be pushing Marine Le Pen down and completely changing the game.”

Another poll published by Elabe pitches Mr Zemmour at eight percent ahead of the first round of voting.

This is on par with the vote share awarded to Mr Mélenchon in the vote, according to the poll speaking to 1,334 people from September 11 to 13.

Mr Macron won 25 percent of the vote, followed by Ms Le Pen at 18 percent and Mr Bertrand at 15 percent.

Without the inclusion of Mr Zemmour, the votes changed massively with Mr Macron winning 26 percent of the vote and Ms Le Pen gaining five percentage points to hit 23 percent.

Mr Bertrand gained one percentage point to hit 16 percent in the Mr Zemmour-free poll.

Mr Macron is still ahead according to Politico’s Poll of Polls with an estimated vote share of 24 percent in the first round of voting in 2022.

Ms Le Pen is right behind the candidate with 23 percent, followed by 16 percent for Mr Bertrand.

Mr Mélenchon had 10 percent of the vote share, followed by Ms Hidalgo and Mr Jadot at seven percent.

Mr Dupont-Aignan will win five percent in the first round according to Politico.

The projections for the second round of voting indicates Mr Macron will win 56 percent of the vote compared to Ms Le Pen’s 44 percent.

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