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Sir Keir Starmer is on course to record a general election landslide victory greater than Tony Blair’s 1997 triumph, according to the first significant polling conducted under new constituency boundaries.
It leaves Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak hoping for a hung Parliament at best, it adds.
The Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll of 10,140 people by Focaldata for Best for Britain recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, with the Tories lagging behind on just 23 per cent.
That would secure Labour a huge 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a majority of 290 seats.
Blair, meanwhile, won 418 seats 26 years ago – a majority of 179.
The study warned, however, that Labour’s results could prove much less positive in other scenarios.
For example, if the Reform Party chose to stand aside in Conservative marginals just as the Brexit Party did four years ago, Labour’s win would be cut to 401, ahead of the Conservatives’ 202.
Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith told a Westmister press briefing: “Labour’s lead does look healthy but their margins are falling everywhere.”
Indeed, polling last autumn gave Labour a 42% share, but even a worst case scenario suggests Starmer’s party would prove to be the biggest in a hung Parliament, according to the latest analysis.
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Smith added though that voters should not “assume that there’s going to be this landslide”.
“What we’re seeing in our data is that it is up for grabs,” she continued. “Lots of factors could come together to mean that there isn’t necessarily going to be a change of government.”
Luke Tryl, UK director of the More in Common think tank, added: “You’re in a situation where people at the moment are going to Labour by default, not because they love the Labour Party. If things start to get a bit better, and people aren’t convinced by that offer from Labour, things become more challenging.”
Psephologist Sir John Curtice played down the “bit of narrowing” in Labour’s lead since Sunak became prime minister in October, however, concluding that the “substantial” decline in Tory support was down to “partygate and the Liz Truss fiscal event”.
Whilst there is no set date for the next general election, it must be held no later than Thursday, January 23, 2025.
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