Conservatives 'suffering from degree of implosion' says Curtice
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The weekly tracker asking who voters would support in a general election saw Labour for a third week in a row stuck on 40 percent. The Conservatives lost a point and went down to 34 percent and the Lib Dems were up one to 10 percent. It comes in a week where Labour and the Lib Dems appeared to be testing out a new Rejoiner alliance for the local elections by not fielding candidates against each other in some areas.
However, the poll also showed that despite some brutal losses for the Conservatives especially in London where they lost iconic councils of Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, there is significant hope for Boris Johnson that his party can win the next election.
The chief executive of Techne UK Michela Morizzo said: “This poll has been realised before the local elections results. So it is not affected from the local vote effects.
“It confirms that Labour under Starmer cannot get a big enough lead over the Conservatives to win on their own in the way Tony Blair’s Labour did in late 1990s. This is why the idea of an alliance with other parties on the left like the Lib Dems has credibility.
“Conservatives can still be in contention only with a change of pace on economic and social issues.”
According to Electoral Calculus – which only has an approximate prediction – if the tracker poll was true Labour would have 315 seat and would need to do a deal with the Lib Dems on 13 to have a small majority and maybe with the SNP on 50 seats to be more secure.
But a much higher turnout in general elections would mean that Conservative voters who stayed at home over Partygate and mid term election anger would likely vote in a general election for Parliament.
The poll also showed that while the Conservatives are a long way behind Labour with young voters (24 percent to 43 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds) they are significantly ahead with pensioners (48 percent to 25 percent of over-64s) who are more likely to vote.
With Remainer London having a wipeout for the Tories but mixed results in pro-Leave areas in the council elections, the poll also shows that a clear Brexit divide has emerged as the political faultline.
According to the poll 55 percent of Leavers back the Tories and 53 percent of Rejoiners back Labour.
Commenting on the local election results, pollster Matt Singh also suggested that they are little more than midterm blues for the Tory government.
He Tweeted: “Last update I saw suggested a swing of just over 2% from Con to Lab vs 2018, putting Labour 4-5 points ahead in the national vote. If that’s where it stays, then we are back to more typical local election territory than the oddity of last year.
“The average over the past 40 years has been for a governing party to lose the PNS by about 3 points, so this would be in that ballpark.”
He added: “In terms of electoral geography I think a lot of people are missing the fact that the (further) realignment of 2019 still has to play out in these results. Eg Labour/Tories underperforming in Leave/Remain areas, but not as badly as in 2019, could still be progress in each case.”
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More concerning for the Tories is the gap in support for women who according to the Techne UK/ Express tracker poll split 45 percent for Labour and 33 percent for the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, men split evenly – 34 percent for the Conservatives and 35 percent for Labour.
However, the male vote is more likely to come out with 53 percent identifying as very likely compared to just 38 percent of women.
And with questions still surrounding Boris Johnson’s leadership the tracker poll shows a lack of confidence in his government with 64 percent negative more than double 31 percent positive.
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