Scottish election polls: Sturgeon’s dream of majority too close to call – latest polls

Scotland: Brown grilled on 'kicking independence into long grass'

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The result of Thursday’s election is likely to put the country on its road to breaking away from its 314-year-old union with the rest of the United Kingdom. Nicola Sturgeon has expressed her plan to force a second independence referendum in the not-so-distant future if the SNP take a majority after Thursday’s vote.

But Britain’s departure from the European Union, a perception that Scotland’s government handled the COVID-19 crisis better than England, and antipathy to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Government have renergised support for an independent Scotland.

The upcoming vote is being seen as a proxy vote for whether independence is back on the cards for the Scots, with Nicola Sturgeon confident she will take a majority and return as First Minister.

Two new polls have predicted different margins for the Scottish parliament elections this Thursday, but the SNP is widely predicted to take the lead, while other parties may make gains on the regional lists.

According to the most recent YouGov poll, the SNP will secure a seven-seat majority in the Scottish parliament on Thursday.

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Polling expert Sir John Curtice said: “While some polls suggest that the SNP might win a majority, others have suggested that they could fall short.

“This reflects the fact that how many seats the SNP win is likely to depend on how well they do in nine knife-edge constituencies where either the Conservatives or Labour are defending a majority of five points or less.

“If the SNP were to gain six of these that could well be sufficient to deliver the party an overall majority irrespective of what happens on the list vote.

“Those polls that put the national level of SNP support at 48 percent or more and the Conservatives and Labour on little more than 20 percent imply that the swing to the nationalists since 2016 will be enough to see at least half a dozen of these crucial marginals fall into their hands.

“Those that put support for the SNP a little lower and that for the two principal opposition parties a little higher suggest that the SNP will fall short.”

Elsewhere, an Opinium poll for Sky News found that Ms Sturgeon will come out with a slim overall majority.

However, a poll conducted by Savanta Comres for The Scotsman indicated the SNP would fall short of the numbers needed to get a majority.

The SNP are hoping to gain at least four more seats to win a majority of 65 in the 129-seat parliament.

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However, the average of the last 10 polls suggests the party are on course to win 64 seats in the 129-seat parliament, one seat short of an overall majority.

The Prime Minister most insisted on the eve of the vote: “I think that most people in Scotland, most people around the whole of the UK, feel that… as we’re coming forwards out of a pandemic together, this is not the time to have a reckless, and I think irresponsible, second referendum.

“I think what most people want is to focus on the country and taking it forward and rebuilding our economy and getting people into work.

“That seems to me to be the priority.”

Elsewhere, Ms Strugeon said: “I’m ready to get back to work, to take the difficult decisions, and to put Scotland first.

“By giving both votes to the SNP tomorrow people will get experienced leadership, a serious programme for government and, when the Covid crisis is over, the right to decide whether Scotland should be an independent country.”

The only time the SNP have won a majority in the Scottish Parliament was in 2011.

Britain’s then Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and agreed to a referendum in 2014.

At the time, Scots voted by 55 to 45 percent to remain part of the UK.

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