Final election polls: The likely outcome – latest polls for Scotland, Wales and London

BBC host says polls suggest Labour is 'still going backwards'

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Millions of voters across the country will head to the polls on Thursday, May 6. The largest number of seats since 1973 are up for grabs after scheduled elections in 2020 were delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Coronavirus is expected to be a crucial issue to most voters, with Scottish independence, crime and healthcare being named as other key issues.

The last day of the election race has arrived and polling day is a matter of just a few hours away.

Political party leaders in England, Wales and Scotland are making their final push for votes ahead of Thursday’s vote.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the Conservatives were facing some “tough contests”, but he said the party was “fighting for every vote”.

The Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party has a “mountain to climb” when it comes to winning back key battleground seats.

More than 5,000 officials will be elected on May 6 across 143 English local councils, 129 MSPs, 60 MSs, 39 PCCs, 25 London Assembly seats, 13 Directly-elected mayors and one MP.


The most recent Scottish voting intention poll found a pro-independence majority is most likely after the results of May 6 are in.

Of 1,144 Scottish adults aged 16 and over, 52 percent would back the Scottish National Party in the constituency vote.

In this vote, this will see 20 percent back the Conservatives, 19 percent Labour, six percent Liberal Democrats, two percent the Green Party and one percent others.

Voting intention in the regional vote stands as follows: SNP 38 percent, Conservatives 22 percent, Labour 16 percent, Green Party 13 percent, Liberal Democrats five percent and Alba Party three percent.

Election Maps UK’s latest final call nowcast indicates the Holyrood result would be as follows:

  • SNP: 67 percent – up four percentage points from 2016
  • Conservatives: 28 percent – down three percentage points from 2016
  • Labour: 18 percent – down six percentage points from 2016
  • Green Party: 11 percent – up five percentage points from 2016
  • Liberal Democrats: five percent – equal to 2016.

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The latest poll for the London Mayoral race indicates the Labour candidate Sadiq Khan is likely to walk away as the winner.

According to a Panelbase poll conducted from May 4 to 5, the voting intention for Mr Khan is 40 percent, which is four percentage points lower than the 2016 result.

The poll found the Conservative contender Shaun Bailey won 29 percent of voting intention, which is six percentage points less than in 2016.

Comparatively the Liberal Democrat, Green and Reclaim UK candidates are predicted to benefit from Labour and Tory losses.

Luisa Porritt with the Liberal Democrats and Sian Berry with the Green Party each won eight percent of voter intention, which is a rise of three and two percentage points respectively.

Reclaim Party’s Laurence Fox won three percent of voting intention according to the poll of 736 likely voters.


The most recent poll for the Senedd parliamentary election, conducted from May 2 to 4, found 36 percent of voters intend to back Labour, which is an increase of one percentage point from a poll published on April 21.

The Conservative Party came second with 29 percent, which is a rise of five percentage points.

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK came in third and fourth place respectively with 20 and four percent.

The remaining constituency voting intention are as follows:

  • Liberal Democrats: Three percent
  • Green Party: Two percent
  • Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party: Two percent
  • UKIP: One percent
  • Propel: One percent
  • Other: One percent.

Election Maps UK’s latest final call nowcast indicates the Senned result will be as follows:

  • Labour: 27 percent – down two percentage points from 2016
  • Conservatives: 17 percent – up six percentage points from 2016
  • Plaid Cymru: 13 percent – up one percentage points from 2016
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party: two percent – up two percentage points from 2016
  • Liberal Democrats: one percent – equal to 2016
  • UKIP: 0 percent – down seven percentage points from 2016.

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