Emmanuel Macron in crisis – the graph that shows president could lose French election

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Emmanuel Macron is currently guiding France through its latest wave of COVID-19, with authorities reporting nearly 30,000 infections per day. The wave is the third but least impactful since 2020, thanks to a well-orchestrated vaccine campaign that has covered 49.1 percent of France’s population. But the relative success has not translated to political clout, according to the latest polls of French voters.

France will see its next elections in 2022, as Mr Macron closes his first term in office.

Mr Macron’s popularity has failed to withstand the effects of COVID-19, having plummeted over the last year according to Politico’s Poll of Polls.

As such, he is now in a precarious position compared to the last election.

Around August 6 last year, the French Prime Minister had an approval rate of 27 percent, the highest of his peers.

But since then, his support has caved, leaving him in a precarious position.

He is presently on a 25 percent approval rate, matching his closest rival, right-wing politician and 2022 presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.

The publication’s Poll of Polls has found the same percentage of people would vote for the two candidates in the first round of next year’s elections.

Should this come to pass next year, that would cost him the election.

When candidates fail to clinch a majority in first-round voting, officials must conduct a runoff.

These see the two most popular candidates compete, discounting the other four or so parties with less support.

Runoffs aren’t uncommon in French elections, as one decided the result of the 2017 race.

Four years ago, Mr Macron led the race with 24 percent of the vote to Ms Le Pen’s 21.3 percent, besting her but failing to clinch the required 50 percent majority.

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Politico’s data shows this would prove Mr Macron’s saving grace once again, but barely.

Their second round polling would see the incumbent president squeak to victory with 56 percent of the vote.

Ms Le Pen would lag by nearly 10 points with support from 44 percent of voters.

But should these results come to pass in 2022, it will show a growing resurgence of far-right politics amongst the French public.

The 2017 race saw Ms Le Pen concede as she gained nearly half of Mr Macron’s 66.1 percent vote share.

She failed to win with 33.9 percent, while if Politico’s polling proves correct, she will have gained more than 11 percent more support.

In comparison, Mr Macron will have lost 9.9 percent, showing growing sympathy with Ms Le Pen’s politics.

Although she has tried to rehabilitate the image of National Rally – formerly the National Front – links between the party and European far-right organisations have emerged as recently as 2019.

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